Extreme rainfall in India is more influenced by changes in local conditions than by changes in global conditions, a study has found. This result helps us better understand extreme rainfall events that have caused havoc in some of the Indian cities. The study was carried by the researchers from the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru.
El-Nino Southern Oscillation, or simply ENSO, is the warming up of the Pacific waters. Some studies show have shown that a strong El-Nino in the far away Pacific is accompanied by a weak Indian summer monsoon. India received less than normal rainfall in 2015, a year which also witnessed the strongest El-Nino on record. If El-Nino can affect one year's rainfall, global climate change can influence the very seasonality of the rainfall. Interestingly, as the IISc study has shown, when it comes to intensity and frequency of the extreme rainfall, local conditions have a stronger influence than the other two global factors.
Using closely related branches of statistics called the 'extreme value theory' and ‘generalized linear models’, the researchers analysed how different climatic factors, both local and global, affected extreme rainfall in India. By going through the maze of historically observed rainfall, and land and sea surface temperatures for the period 1969 – 2005, they looked for clues to understand what actually influenced three extreme rainfall parameters – intensity, frequency, and duration. Calculations showed that, if the intensity and frequency danced to the tune of changes in local temperature, the duration of the extreme rainfall remained mostly uninfluenced.
“We analysed rainfall data for summer monsoon months collected by the Indian Meteorological Organisation from nearly two thousand locations. We modelled the extreme rainfall in the country under the influence of changes in local temperature at the regional scale, while ENSO, and changes in global temperature are considered as global factors. Unlike earlier studies, we looked simultaneously at the intensity, duration and frequency of extreme rainfall at fine spatial scales”, said Dr Arpita Mondal, now an Assistant Professor in IIT Mumbai. She carried out the study when she was a research scholar at the Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, working under the guidance of Pradeep Mujumdar, Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IISc.
A rainfall event is considered extreme if it crosses a high threshold. The frequency is about the number of extreme rainfall spells in June, July, August, and September, the summer monsoon months. The duration of the extreme rainfall is the number of consecutive days on which the rainfall is above the threshold. The strong influence of changes in local temperature on extreme rainfall indicates that localized effects play a more significant role. One example of such localized processes is urbanization. Further research needs to be carried out to categorically link changes in urbanization and other local processes to those in the extreme rainfall characteristics.
About the authors:
Arpita Mondal, the first author of the paper, is an Assistant Professor in IIT Bombay, Mumbai. She carried out the study when she was a research scholar at the IISc, Bengaluru. Pradeep Mujumdar, the corresponding author, is a Professor in the Department of Civil Engineering, IISc.
Contact: Arpita Mondal can be contacted at +91 22 2576 9305.
Link to the paper:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.071